Advice

By late July, the celadon shop had been reorganized and was back on track. On the twenty-sixth, word finally came from Sun Chuan, who had been missing for quite some time. He sent a nephew named Sun Chong to pay a call. Zheng Fan immediately brought Shao Shuyi along to meet him. The moment they met, Sun Chong stared fixedly at Shao Shuyi, his expression a mix of surprise and displeasure. Without wasting time on pleasantries, he went straight to the point. "When we spoke previously with Shopkeeper Wang, we agreed that the celadon in the warehouse would be sold to the foreign merchant Ahmad for six thousand ding. Does that agreement still stand?" "Was a contract ever drawn up?" Zheng Fan asked, already knowing the answer. "No," Sun Chong replied, his face darkening further. "Last year, just over twenty-seven thousand pieces of celadon sold for more than eight thousand two hundred ding," Zheng Fan said. "This year we have two thousand more pieces, and the varieties are comparable, yet you offer only six thousand ding. Why is that?" "Doing business is like the tide—it ebbs and flows without predictability. What is so strange about that?" Sun Chong said. Zheng Fan had no interest in haggling with him. "That is far too little. Unless you offer ten thousand ding this time, there is no sale." Sun Chong's cheek twitched. He stood up at once and said, "Then I shall take my leave." Before departing, he sneered. "It is already late July. Just wait and see whether anyone comes to buy your celadon, Officer Zheng!" With that, he flicked his sleeves and stalked out. Zheng Fan slammed his palm onto the table, splashing tea everywhere. Shao Shuyi cleared his throat and said, "Officer, selling celadon to foreign merchants cannot possibly earn as much as selling it ourselves. I hear the imperial court is recruiting crews for government-capitalized trading ships to venture overseas. The Yangs of Ganpu, the Ye clan of Chongming, and the Fei clan of Changxing have all answered the call. The Old Minister is the Deputy Myriad Household Commander of the Transport Office, so our family ought to share the court's burdens. Why not take the imperial baochao, purchase a ship, and put to sea alongside the Yangs of Ganpu? "If we sail as far as Malabar on the southwestern coast of India, a four- or fivefold profit is easily within grasp. "If we reach Hormuz or Basra, seven or eight times our investment is practically guaranteed. "And if we push a little farther to Egypt, ten times our return would be effortless." Zheng Fan remained silent. Because he had to take charge of the celadon shop, he had recently crammed some knowledge of the maritime trade. In his eyes, this young accountant, Shao Shuyi, really seemed to know a trick or two. "Hormuz," as the boy had just called it, sounded somewhat like the island of Kuolimusi, while "Basra" sounded like the port of Bishiluo. As for "Egypt," he had never heard of it at all. The youth clearly knew the names of these major trading ports, yet his pronunciation was rather peculiar; heaven only knew where he had picked up such hearsay. Of course, none of that mattered. What did matter was that the court indeed maintained a system of government-capitalized trading ships. The authorities supplied vessels, paper money, and even part of the merchandise, encouraging capable commoners to sail overseas and trade. The proceeds were split between both sides, usually on a seventy-thirty basis—seventy percent to the court and thirty percent to the seafarers. For poor folk who had no capital but were willing to risk their lives on the high seas, this was indeed a way to change their fate. Many were eager to try, and quite a few had leaped from rags to riches overnight. In truth, the profits could easily be doctored on the ledgers; once a ship was out at sea, the court had no way of monitoring it, so the returns were exceedingly handsome. Yet the Zheng family had no real need for the court's money. They could provide their own vessels and cargo; what the Zhengs lacked was experienced hands. Seafaring was a specialized craft. Certain routes in particular could not be sailed by just anyone. Coastal grain transport was manageable, as that waterway had already been thoroughly charted by the court and even optimized and improved twice, making it relatively safe—though only relatively so. Venturing south to Srivijaya, however, was beyond the Zheng family's capabilities, let alone reaching Malabar or foreign ports even further afield. Thinking of this, Zheng Fan hesitated. "Earlier, you boasted before Third Young Master that we should approach Shen Wansan to handle overseas trade. Now I can tell you that the Shen family actually has no ships of their own. They rely on the vessels and crews of the Ye clan of Chongming. If that is the case, wouldn't it be better to deal directly with the Ye, Yang, or Fei clans?" *Damn, is that true?* Shao Shuyi felt a prick of embarrassment. However, his recommendation to collaborate with the Shen family had never been solely for foreign trade. He said, "Officer, the Shen family's business extends far beyond overseas ventures. Even common folk buying grain, drawing cooking oil, purchasing wine, or tailoring clothes end up entangled with them. If Third Young Master wishes to expand the family enterprise, partnering with the Shens is the quickest shortcut." "There is some sense to that." Zheng Fan pondered for a moment, then said, "Very well. I shall return to the ancestral residence today and consult Third Young Master." *** Zheng Fan moved swiftly. Early on the morning of the third day, he returned and dragged Shao Shuyi away right in the middle of his breakfast. "Officer, what is..." Shao Shuyi, who had been eating heartily, asked instinctively. "Still stuffing your face? Don't choke to death!" Zheng Fan roared with laughter. "I spoke with Third Young Master for a long time last night. He is due for a promotion to registrar in the Transport Office soon, so it is inconvenient for him to make enemies right now. Sun Chuan has quite a background and strong connections over at the Maritime Trade Supervisorate. With people shielding him, he is not easily dealt with." "Not easily dealt with" summed up the entire situation. Shao Shuyi guessed that the Zheng family had likely considered taking action against Sun Chuan, but the Transport Office and the Maritime Trade Supervisorate were two completely separate yamen. In ordinary matters, everyone got along, and mutual favors were nothing special. But when it came to clashes of commercial interest, the Maritime Trade Supervisorate would not be so obliging. Sun Chuan was a major tax farmer, and the Semu officials at the Maritime Trade Supervisorate depended on him to collect their revenue. Even the branch secretariat showed considerable leniency toward such broker merchants; after all, funds were needed everywhere these days, and commercial taxes were growing more vital by the day. No wonder he was so arrogant! "So—" Zheng Fan clapped Shao Shuyi on the shoulder. "I brought up the Shen family again. Third Young Master said that selling the celadon to foreign merchants for six thousand ding would make him lose far too much face, so we can try approaching the Shens. As for the bait to tempt them, haha, it just so happens our family has that as well." Shao Shuyi did not ask what the "bait" was, knowing he might not be entitled to know. In any case, the general direction had been set, and if the deal went through, he would receive credit for it. At that moment, another thought occurred to him, and he said, "Officer, these days the paper currency depreciates while goods grow dearer, worsening by the day. Perhaps we ought to stockpile more tangible goods. Celadon, silks, cotton, hemp, grain, timber, tea, wine, salt, and iron—the more, the better. It is only July, yet compared to three or four months ago, grain prices have already—" "Risen?" Zheng Fan asked. "Risen." "By how much?" "Over ten percent," Shao Shuyi said. "Coarse round-grain rice is now thirty-four guan per dan, whereas it was only thirty guan in early April." Zheng Fan slapped his thigh. "You certainly have a sharp eye for detail! Rising month after month—that is rather frightening." Shao Shuyi agreed. "With torrential rains in the north and persistent drought in Jiangnan, everyone knows this year's harvest will fail. Price hikes are inevitable." "Just because of that?" "Not only because of poor harvests, but also due to the collapse of the currency system," Shao Shuyi explained. "Yesterday, a traveling monk who came to buy celadon mentioned that during his journeys in the north throughout the first half of the year, disasters struck everywhere, leaving the populace displaced. The imperial court poured massive resources into relief..." When Shao Shuyi had first heard the monk's account, he had also been shocked, as it completely shattered his assumptions. When natural disasters struck, the Yuan court did not ignore them. On the contrary, it actively provided relief, but its method was unthinkable: disaster-stricken households were given half a ding of paper currency, and if someone died, an additional ding was granted. No grain was distributed—only paper money. And where did that relief money come from? They simply printed more! In truth, this had not begun this year; hadn't it been the same last year? In the first month, famine struck Bao'an in Shunning, and the court disbursed ten thousand ding in paper money; Guangping suffered famine, and fifty thousand ding was disbursed. In the second month, Anyang and other counties of Zhangde Circuit starved, so twenty thousand ding was handed out; Hunyuan Prefecture of Datong Circuit faced famine, receiving sixty-two thousand ding and twenty thousand dan of rice; Daming Circuit starved, receiving twelve thousand ding; Hejian Circuit starved, receiving fifty thousand ding. In the third month, Pingxiang County of Shunde Circuit suffered famine, receiving fifteen thousand ding... Almost every month, disasters and famines erupted somewhere, and most of the time the Yuan court had only one trick: print more paper money and hand it out as relief. After a year and a half of transmission, those notes steadily flowed into the south, where disasters were relatively few, triggering a spiral of inflation. With an average of hundreds of thousands of ding in disaster relief each year, plus hundreds of thousands more for work-relief infrastructure projects such as river dredging and dike repairs, the market was flooded with ever more paper currency. Meanwhile, the counterfeiters in Jiangxi showed no restraint either. Their forging techniques had reached new heights, churning out sack after sack of fake notes until there were more counterfeits than genuine currency printed by the court. Once those notes flooded the market on top of reduced grain yields, was it any wonder prices soared? Therefore, Shao Shuyi advised the Zheng family to hoard physical commodities and spend down their paper currency. Listening to this, Zheng Fan found it made great sense and immediately said, "I shall write a letter to Third Young Master at once to see what he says. Rest assured, if Third Young Master agrees with your reasoning, the credit is yours." At this point, Zheng Fan paused, thought for a moment, and added, "Returning to the matter of the celadon. Hmm, tomorrow you will come out with me to meet someone, and broaden your horizons while you're at it." Shao Shuyi gave an affirmative reply. He could sense that Zheng Fan's impression of him was quite favorable. "Our Zheng family is as fair as can be in handling matters," Zheng Fan continued. "The system of internal and external accounting ledgers you introduced recently has proved genuinely useful. Third Young Master mentioned that some of the largest merchant firms have separate internal and external counters. Our family has only been in business for a few years, and everything was built from scratch, leaving things utterly chaotic. In this matter, you have rendered meritorious service. Hmm, today's suggestions also count as a merit." "It is merely my duty," Shao Shuyi said with a smile. "I care not where you learned it all." Zheng Fan glanced sideways at him. "In any case, Third Young Master agreed to give you eight dou of rice, six liang of salt, two jars of pickles, and forty guan in paper money each month—not merely so you could serve as an external accountant, but so you would take on more duties in running the shop. There are matters I cannot handle, and others I simply dislike doing." "Understood." Shao Shuyi's expression turned serious, and he responded respectfully. "Why act so meek now?" Zheng Fan chuckled and scolded, "When you were killing river pirates, slaying Zhang Neng, and seizing Wang Sheng, you weren't nearly this well-behaved!" Shao Shuyi offered an awkward smile. Zheng Fan's temperament was completely different from Zheng Song's—worlds apart, in fact. Zheng Song would never have spoken such words, yet Zheng Fan wore an air of total indifference, leaving Shao Shuyi unsure how to reply. "I heard you've been looking for a house to rent outside?" Zheng Fan asked just before leaving. "Yes," Shao Shuyi replied, then added, "I've already found one, but I'm short on coin at the moment and cannot move in yet. It will have to wait until next month." "Where did your money go?" "I still have some grain, but all my paper money went toward buying the hand cannon." Zheng Fan burst out laughing. "Money well spent! Save up on your own, though; I certainly won't lend you any." With that, he sauntered off. Shao Shuyi smiled at his departing back. It truly was time to amass some goods. Prices were climbing day by day, causing quite a headache. For the moment, what he needed to hoard was grain and salt. In a few days, once he collected his monthly pay, he would convert it into those two necessities and have Wang Huadu, who had already returned, help keep them safe.